03 Jun Pending Home Sales Surge
As readers have likely seen in the news, pending US home sales rose more than expected as owners took advantage of tax credits and other government housing stimulus (including FHAÂ junk loans that are going to cost tax payers aplenty down the road).
This is great news, unfortunately it is a trailing indicator, not a leading or coincident indicator, of activity in the real estate market. Pending home sales represent months and sometimes years of research, house hunting, negotiation and inspectionsÂ before a willing buyer pulls the trigger– especially in the market over the last 30 months.
After 5 strong Months from November – March, activity in Marin CountyÂ started slowing in April and took a dive in May. The first few days of June saw another surge in home buying interest. My instincts are telling me this rebound in interest may be a short lived and at best is dependent on stock market stability.
The real estate market is like no other market I have ever monitored– it changes on a dime. One day/hour/minute everyone wants to buy a home, and the next moment– the doldrums.
The best leading indicator of home buying activity (in Marin) is , interestingly enough, how much I money I spend each day advertising on Google, and related clickÂ data on Adwords. Google would be wise to capture this data and publish a leading indicator of home buying activity.
The upshot– the trend in Home buying activity despite the recent uptick, seems to be slowing.
Please read the Marin Update as well.
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Please call or email me with any questions Dave@thedupontgroup.net 415-867-6611.