12 Jun Mid June 2019 Quick Update
Marin County prices have rebounded from early Spring losses and are now flat for the year which is a typical improvement we see annually particularly in rainy winters when home buyers hunker down and sit out the storms. Typically we also see an approximately 50 day lag between the time that home buyers come to the market in earnest and when properties start closing and buyers send a clear indication of market place pricing.
The national economy continues to send mixed signals, as do the capital markets. Interest rates are likely to remain low for a period of time probably at least until the next election cycle is over.
The local San Francisco Bay economy continues to steam ahead with more jobs than qualified applicants. Recent IPO and other liquidity events will marginally increase aggregate Bay Area earnings and likely result in price increases across the board for the broad Bay Area Housing stock. These price gains will originate in SF proper before radiating out slowly to the suburbs over the next few years.
Longer-term trends continue to point to demand growth for housing and substantial price appreciation for Marin County real estate as a factor of constrained supply, local growth in SF Bay area aggregate earnings, lifestyle, availability of water to sustain population growth relative to other metropolitan and suburban areas in the South West, and lower relative wildfire risk than outlying areas like Napa and Sonoma.